环球圆桌对话：“两个中东”裂变困局出路在哪

Group 1: U.S. Strategy in the Middle East - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Iran while simultaneously deploying military assets in the region, leading to debates about whether its strategy is one of "retrenchment" or "expansion" [1][2][3] - The strategic shift began during the Obama administration, focusing on reallocating resources from the Middle East to counter perceived threats in the Asia-Pacific region, resulting in a decline in the Middle East's strategic importance [2][3] - The current U.S. approach reflects a desire to maintain influence in the Middle East with minimal investment, emphasizing arms sales and partnerships in energy and technology [2][3] Group 2: Regional Dynamics and Responses - Middle Eastern countries are increasingly aware of U.S. strategies and are enhancing their strategic autonomy, seeking to resolve conflicts through reconciliation and development [4][5][6] - The recent escalation of conflicts, including the Gaza conflict and tensions with Iran, has prompted Gulf states to assert their positions against U.S. military actions, emphasizing the need for peaceful resolutions [7][8] - The evolving security landscape in the region is marked by a shift towards a collective security framework, with countries recognizing the interdependence of their security and development [10][11][12] Group 3: The Duality of Conflict and Reconciliation - The Middle East is characterized by a tension between ongoing conflicts and a push for reconciliation, with countries increasingly prioritizing development as a core agenda [9][13] - Despite the challenges posed by external interventions and historical conflicts, there is a growing trend among regional states to pursue peace and development through dialogue and cooperation [12][13] - The recognition of the need for a common security order reflects a significant shift in regional dynamics, as countries aim to establish a more stable and prosperous environment [11][12]