【沥青日报】沥青跟随悲观情绪回落，基本面需求数据相对一般

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant drop in the main BU 2603 futures contract, closing at 3299, down 4.87% from the previous day, influenced by a decline in market risk appetite and negative sentiment in the energy sector [3][28] - As of January 30, domestic refinery production was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 4% week-on-week, while sales volume from a large sample of enterprises was 341,200 tons, down 6% week-on-week. Total inventory, including social and factory stocks, was 760,000 tons, also down 4% week-on-week [3][28] - The production gross profit, excluding consumption tax deductions, was approximately 34 yuan/ton, a significant drop from nearly 110 yuan/ton the previous week [3][28] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that the recent drop in asphalt prices has reversed much of the premium generated by geopolitical tensions, with factors such as potential agreements between Trump and Iran contributing to a decrease in conflict-related pricing [29] - The article recommends focusing on near-month contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments, and suggests that after geopolitical factors dissipate, the long-term contracts may show potential for bullish trends based on global supply-demand improvements and domestic construction activity [30] - The strategy includes a recommendation for a 3-6 month spread logic and to consider going long on the BU-Brent crack spread [30]