Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-03 01:27Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2261 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.7%. The sentiment in the market is bearish as pre-holiday stockpiling by enterprises is nearing completion, while grassroots grain selling sentiment is recovering [4][15]. - Weather conditions this week are noteworthy, with warming forecasts in Northeast China. This may accelerate the sale of grain lacking standard storage conditions, but the overall low temperatures may only lead to a temporary drop in spot prices. Post-holiday, weather-related risk factors will gain more attention [4][15]. - Overall inventory in Northeast China remains at historical lows, with no significant rebound expected. Without additional fundamental information, market focus is shifting towards post-holiday speculative sentiment [5][16]. - The corn main contract is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, observing support around 2250 and resistance at 2330 [6][17]. Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Overnight CBOT soybeans followed the decline in commodity prices, balancing between reduced production expectations due to drought in Argentina and the realization of abundant harvests in Brazil. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, with Mato Grosso state at 33.2%, advancing by 13.5 percentage points weekly [6][17]. - The soybean meal fundamentals show no marginal changes, following the weakness in overseas markets. Concerns about potential tightness in future soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules have somewhat elevated price resilience [6][17]. - The current shipping schedule for Brazilian soybeans is favorable for crushing profits, which may encourage commercial oil mills to actively purchase. However, if the pressure from South American arrivals materializes, there remains a risk of a decline in meal prices impacting crushing margins [6][17]. Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs in major production areas remains stable, with an average price of approximately 3.33 yuan/jin in Hebei, unchanged from the previous day. Short-term demand for pre-holiday stockpiling is the main support, but demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, indicating a potential shift to a bearish pricing rhythm [8][19]. - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the actual progress of capacity reduction. Historically, the year 2025 may be a loss year, potentially leading to improvements in supply-demand relationships, while the market outlook for 2026 appears positive, albeit with risks of phase-based expectation overshooting [8][19]. Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.56 yuan/kg. After a continuous decline, the market has seen a rebound. Despite the proximity to the Spring Festival, which may cause fluctuations, the near-term futures contracts have already priced in expectations of a decline [10][21]. - The key observation point for the 2026 market will be the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction. Major enterprises are increasingly using futures for risk management, which may alter traditional understandings of the "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [10][21].