光大期货：2月3日农产品日报

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans declined due to a general drop in commodity prices, with strong global supply and a stronger dollar reducing the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing with strong yield expectations, while Argentina's western agricultural regions have improved soil moisture but require more rainfall in the coming weeks [2][9] - Domestic protein meal is running weakly, with stocking demand nearing its end and terminal transactions declining, leading to weaker spot performance [2][9] - Feed enterprise inventories are generally rising, with a notable increase nationwide, and oil mill operating rates are steadily increasing, adding supply pressure [2][9] - The strategy suggested is a double selling strategy, with a strong basis before the holiday [2][9] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil fell, following the general decline in commodity prices, with easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributing to a drop in international oil prices, benefiting the oilseed market [10] - Domestic oilseed futures prices dropped significantly, with palm oil leading the decline, followed by rapeseed oil and soybean oil [10] - The market is experiencing a cooling trend, with profit-taking by bulls leading to downward pressure [10] - The soybean market is awaiting clarity on U.S. biodiesel policies and domestic soybean auctions, while palm oil is focused on inventory reduction in producing areas [10] Group 3: Live Pig - The main live pig futures contract opened high but fluctuated, closing flat at 11,220 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.48 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous day, with regional price variations noted [11] - Limited supply from the breeding sector and increased demand in northern regions have led to rising prices [11] - The long-term trend of production capacity reduction remains unchanged, with attention on the pace of capacity reduction and potential trading opportunities after contract adjustments [11] Group 4: Eggs - The main egg futures contract opened low and slightly strengthened, closing down 0.9% at 2,975 yuan/500kg [13] - The national average egg price was 3.74 yuan/jin, down 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day, with regional price declines noted [13] - Terminal market demand is weak, with procurement enthusiasm from downstream sectors remaining flat [13] - The market is experiencing an increase in supply, and the demand support is decreasing as stocking approaches its end, leading to a continued decline in spot prices [13] - The breeding sector's willingness to replenish stock has increased, while the willingness to eliminate has decreased, negatively impacting capacity reduction [13] Group 5: Corn - The near-month corn futures contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with a decrease of 110,000 contracts [14] - Prices in North China are stable but lack upward momentum, with some processing enterprises raising prices by 6-20 yuan/ton [14] - Farmers' willingness to sell corn is increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, but overall selling pace remains average [14] - The market is experiencing a slight decline in corn prices in sales areas, with weak downstream demand and market transactions being light [14] - Technical analysis indicates resistance at the 2,300 yuan level for the March contract, with adjustments expected in the near and far-month contracts [14]