不锈钢：宏观和原料端承压 盘面日内大跌

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price declines due to weak macroeconomic sentiment and pressure from raw material nickel prices [3] Supply - In January 2026, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The 300 series output is estimated at 1.7957 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 48,500 tons (2.78%) and a year-on-year increase of 20.76% [2] - February's crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and starting maintenance ahead of the holiday [2] Inventory - The trading atmosphere is calm, with traders focusing on fulfilling pre-holiday orders, leading to insufficient restocking demand [2] - As of January 30, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - On February 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,818 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,880 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is under pressure from macroeconomic factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to hawkish expectations for U.S. monetary policy [3] - Nickel ore prices are rising due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines and increased demand from smelters [3] - The market for high-nickel pig iron is quiet, with prices around 10,600-10,800 yuan per nickel (including tax) [3] - The supply of ferrochrome is also tight, maintaining relatively high retail prices [3] Demand - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence [3] - Construction projects are slowing down, leading to weak procurement from downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on 300 series stainless steel production is 485,000 tons due to production cuts before and after the holiday [3]