白银短短四日坠入“技术熊市”，但信仰为何仍在？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced a significant drop of over 30% last Friday, marking the first entry into a bear market since 2022, yet confidence in its potential remains strong among analysts [1][9]. Market Analysis - According to Dow Jones market data, the most active silver futures contract entered a bear market on January 30, following a decline of over 30% from its historical high of $115.504 per ounce on January 26, settling at $78.631 per ounce [2][10]. - The rapid transition into a bear market occurred within four trading days, a pace not seen since 2011 [2][11]. Expert Opinions - Peter Grant, a senior metal strategist, suggests that despite the technical classification of a bear market, he does not fully believe silver is in a bear market due to its remarkable price increase of over 100% in the past year [1][10]. - John Caruso from RJO Futures argues that the recent drop in silver and gold prices may reflect a trust vote regarding Kevin Warsh and the independence of the Federal Reserve, while also noting that the power to print money seems to have shifted from the Fed to Congress [5][13]. - Edward Meir from Marex indicates that while silver's chart appears unstable, the price bottom is yet to be confirmed, suggesting it could drop further before stabilizing [6][13]. Future Outlook - Grant believes that a recovery above $100 per ounce could alleviate downward pressure on silver prices, although new highs may not be seen in the first half of the year [6][14]. - The market is currently not in equilibrium, and increased margin requirements by the CME Group may exacerbate price weakness in the short term [7][14]. - As of Tuesday, spot silver prices rose to $85 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 7.27% [7][14].