原材料价格上涨对白电龙头影响有限，白电1-2月排产增速环比改善

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in copper and other raw material prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods companies. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of rising raw material costs on gross margins has gradually diminished, and these companies are expected to maintain profitability through structural adjustments and cost savings [2]. Group 1: Raw Material Price Impact - Since 2008, the home appliance industry has experienced three significant raw material price increase cycles, with the impact on gross margins decreasing over time. During the 2009-2011 cycle, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points; in the 2016-2017 cycle, it was around 5 percentage points; and in the 2020-2022 cycle, it was limited to a maximum of 2 percentage points [2]. - In January 2026, the average monthly closing prices for copper and aluminum on the SHFE increased by 36.7% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively. This increase is lower than that observed during the 2020-2022 period, suggesting that the current impact on white goods companies may be less severe, with an expected gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%. The cumulative production for January and February is expected to decline by 5.0%. Compared to the over 10% decline in production in Q4 2025, the production performance of white goods has shown signs of recovery [3]. - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines has seen varying declines, with air conditioners down 31.6% year-on-year, refrigerators down 17.0%, and washing machines down 3.2%. The cumulative decline for January and February is 10.3%, 6.4%, and 2.4%, respectively. The impact of the Spring Festival has pressured production, but the cumulative growth rate has slightly improved [3]. Group 3: Retail Market Performance - In 2025, the retail scale of China's home appliance market was 893.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%. The retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 0.4%, 11.5%, and 4.6%, respectively. However, small home appliances performed better, with an overall retail sales increase of 3.8% [4]. - The market performance in January showed a relative return of -2.6% for the home appliance sector. The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 7.8% and 4.8% month-on-month, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 0.5% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments in the white goods sector include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Technology, and Hisense Home Appliances. For the black goods sector, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are recommended, while for small appliances, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and Xinbao Co. are suggested [5].