华泰期货：黄金白银巨震，后市何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility from late January to early February 2026, with gold and silver futures contracts seeing substantial declines due to market concerns over the new Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's monetary policy direction [2][8]. Price Movements - The main gold contract (沪金2604) opened at 1140.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1008.60 CNY/gram, reflecting a drop of 15.73% [2][8]. - The main silver contract (沪银2604) opened at 25960 CNY/kilogram and closed at 24832 CNY/kilogram, showing a decline of 17.00% [2][8]. Market Catalysts - The extreme market conditions were likely triggered by adjustments in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary easing pace, with fears that it may slow down further in 2026, putting pressure on precious metal prices [2][8]. Price Dynamics - Gold had previously seen significant price increases, leading to its classification as a "risk asset," which created a strong demand for price correction. The high level of bullish trading positions contributed to a potential sell-off reaction, further driving down gold prices [2][8]. - Silver experienced similar dynamics, with excessive bullish positions and prior price increases leading to substantial unrealized gains, making it susceptible to a sell-off in the event of price declines [2][8]. Future Outlook - Gold is expected to remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, with ongoing demand for safe-haven assets and the potential for dollar asset substitution. The recommendation is to buy on dips, although further short-term corrections may occur [2][8]. - Due to high volatility, a cautious approach is advised for silver, with a recommendation to adopt a wait-and-see attitude for the time being [2][8].