长江有色：国际油价大跌且市场厌恶情绪弥漫 3日锌价或下跌

Group 1 - International oil prices have sharply declined, leading to a pervasive negative sentiment in the market, which has caused a continued drop in zinc prices, with LME zinc falling by 1.53% to close at $3319 per ton [1][4] - The domestic zinc market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with refined zinc production decreasing by approximately 50,000 tons month-on-month due to factory shutdowns and seasonal maintenance [3] - The recent increase in U.S. manufacturing activity is overshadowed by trade policy uncertainties and potential government shutdowns, which may delay key employment data and create market information asymmetry [2][4] Group 2 - The domestic zinc market is facing tight supply conditions, with significant reductions in zinc mine output due to winter maintenance and repairs, while downstream consumption is low as companies prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] - The market is concerned about the policy direction of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, which could lead to tighter financial conditions and further pressure on zinc prices [2][4] - Speculative investors and funds are withdrawing from the market, and the lack of solid supply-demand fundamentals to support previous zinc price increases has led to increased price volatility [4]