纯苯：供需重构 震荡修复

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to transition from price competition to value creation by 2025, leading to a systematic restructuring of the entire chemical supply chain [1] - The pure benzene market experienced a significant decline in 2025, with prices dropping from 7464 yuan per ton in January to 5318 yuan in December, a decrease of over 40% [1] - For 2026, industry experts anticipate a "supply-demand restructuring and oscillatory recovery" in the pure benzene market, with overall transaction levels expected to gradually improve [1] Supply Dynamics - The rapid expansion of pure benzene production capacity in China has led to a supply surplus, with 2025 production reaching approximately 23 million tons and imports at 5.6083 million tons, marking increases of 10% and 30.03% year-on-year, respectively [2] - In 2026, the supply of pure benzene is expected to show "limited growth and structural optimization," as capacity expansion slows down, with new capacity additions around 2.26 million tons [2] - The exit of outdated production capacity, driven by carbon reduction policies, is accelerating, with about 15% of existing old facilities facing elimination or upgrades [2] Demand Factors - Traditional demand for pure benzene remains stable, primarily driven by the styrene sector, which accounts for approximately 48% of demand [4] - Although traditional demand is steady, emerging market demand is weak, with high-end applications like electronic-grade solvents and pharmaceutical intermediates making up less than 5% of total demand [4] - The overall growth rate for pure benzene demand in Asia is projected to be only 1.6% in 2026 due to global economic uncertainties and trade barriers [4] Market Outlook - The pure benzene market is expected to experience a "bull-bear tug-of-war and oscillatory recovery" in 2026, with prices rising from 5300 yuan to 6200 yuan, a 17% increase driven by improved fundamentals and pre-holiday stockpiling [5] - The market may enter a phase of oscillatory consolidation due to high inventory levels and the acceptance of price increases by downstream enterprises [5] - Long-term, the chemical sector's new cycle narrative will dominate the market, with supply-side constraints and steady traditional demand providing support for price recovery [6]