宏观“风暴眼”下锌价短期承压，长期曙光待现？

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics, with potential for short-term volatility while long-term demand growth in new sectors offers hope for recovery [1][4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - The market is focused on the new Federal Reserve Chairman, whose policy stance could either support or tighten financial conditions, impacting zinc prices significantly [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of recovery in manufacturing, but trade policy uncertainties and government shutdown risks create a precarious environment for economic stability [2] Domestic Market Stability - Domestic data indicates a strengthening manufacturing sector in China, with increased factory activity and export orders, providing some support for zinc prices [2][3] - However, seasonal factors like the upcoming Chinese New Year are leading to reduced demand in the downstream zinc consumption sector [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by production cuts and seasonal maintenance, leading to a decrease in refined zinc output by approximately 50,000 tons month-on-month [2][3] - Demand remains stable but is primarily driven by existing consumption, with a notable decline in downstream activity as companies prepare for the holiday season [3][4] Short-Term Challenges - Market fears regarding the new Fed Chairman's policies and potential government shutdowns are creating a cloud of uncertainty over zinc prices [4] - Speculative withdrawals from the market and low seasonal demand are contributing to price suppression, with expectations of further price dips [4] Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year provide a glimmer of hope for market recovery [5] - Emerging demand from sectors such as energy storage, data centers, and electric vehicles is anticipated to drive long-term growth in zinc consumption [5]