暴跌后“闪腰式”反弹 美联储政策大山前金价踌躇

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced a technical rebound after a rare and severe adjustment, but market sentiment remains cautious, with investors showing concerns about the short-term environment [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - Monetary policy expectations are a key factor constraining gold prices, with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's personnel and policy direction leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [1][2]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has made the market more cautious, with expectations that he may favor maintaining high interest rates and pushing for balance sheet reduction, which typically benefits the dollar but weakens the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. Market Dynamics - Market liquidity tightening has intensified short-term selling pressure, as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing high-leverage traders to liquidate positions, which amplifies price volatility and suppresses gold price rebounds [2]. - Geopolitical factors, such as potential diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran, could influence gold prices, as any resurgence of tensions may lead to a return of safe-haven flows into gold [2]. Technical Analysis - Following a rapid increase, gold prices have shown significant volatility, indicating concentrated profit-taking at high levels. Although prices have rebounded from recent lows, they remain below previous highs, suggesting that the market has not fully digested the prior uptrend [3]. - The daily structure indicates that after a sharp decline, gold has entered a corrective rebound phase, with K-line entities shortening and shadows lengthening, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [3]. - Gold prices are currently stabilizing around the $4800 mark, which has become a critical support level for short-term bulls. The stability of this level will directly impact future price movements [3]. - Short-term moving averages are showing signs of turning, but have not yet formed a clear downward arrangement, indicating a preference for high-level fluctuations rather than a straightforward downward trend [3]. - The $4850–$4900 range presents significant technical resistance, as it corresponds to both the starting point of previous accelerated declines and important pressure zones at the daily level. Until this range is effectively broken, any rebound in gold prices is likely to be viewed as a technical correction [3]. - If the $4800 support level is breached, prices may retest previous low points, increasing short-term volatility risks. Overall, the daily structure of gold indicates a high-level wide fluctuation with an unclear direction, necessitating new fundamental catalysts for guidance [3].