长安期货侯荃宇：外围因素扰动 PVC企稳回升

Core Viewpoint - The PVC futures market experienced a "V-shaped" rebound in January 2026, driven by improved market sentiment and significant capital inflow, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 5125 yuan/ton [5][22]. Group 1: Market Performance - The V2605 contract closed at 5063 yuan/ton on January 30, marking a monthly increase of 5.37% and a rise of 258 yuan/ton [5][22]. - The trading volume for the V2605 contract surged by approximately 11.735 million lots to 28.433 million lots, with open interest increasing by 123,000 lots to 1.046 million lots, indicating heightened market activity [5][22]. Group 2: Supply Side - PVC production remains high due to increased capacity, with a weekly operating rate of 78.93% as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.98% [7][24]. - The weekly production reached 483,300 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month and a year-on-year rise of 9,000 tons [7][24]. Group 3: Export Performance - China is a net exporter of PVC, with exports in December 2025 reaching approximately 314,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 35.04% [9][26]. - The total PVC export volume for 2025 was about 3.823 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.01% [9][26]. Group 4: Demand Side - The demand side shows weakness, particularly in the real estate sector, with a significant decline in housing investment and construction activities [10][28]. - As of January 30, 2026, the average operating rate for downstream PVC users was 44.75%, with many small manufacturers halting operations [10][28]. Group 5: Inventory Levels - PVC inventory levels have been continuously increasing, with small sample social inventory reaching 584,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.44% [13][31]. - The large sample social inventory stood at 1.2064 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.53%, indicating a supply-demand mismatch in the industry [13][31]. Group 6: Summary and Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by a supply surplus, with high inventory levels likely to suppress price increases in the short term [15][34]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility or a downward trend due to weak domestic demand, with limited upward price potential in the medium to long term [15][34].