“反内卷”有望催化化工周期复苏，新材料ETF国泰（159761）涨超2%

Group 1 - The global chemical industry is undergoing rapid rebalancing, with the European chemical sector facing challenges such as factory closures and declining investments, leading to a decrease in its global sales share from 27% in 2004 to 13% in 2024 [1] - In contrast, China's share of global chemical sales has increased significantly from 10% to 46% during the same period [1] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to catalyze a recovery in the cycle, while the "new economy" will drive growth in new materials [1] Group 2 - Foreign companies are closing domestic titanium dioxide production capacity, and European chemical startups are abandoning investments in Europe in favor of building green methanol-based polyolefin plants in China [1] - Domestic technological breakthroughs have been achieved, such as the large-scale production of polyethylene elastomers (POE) using the gas-phase method by China National Petroleum Corporation [1] - The Guotai New Materials ETF (159761) tracks the New Materials Index (H30597), which focuses on the new materials industry and includes listed companies in advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and cutting-edge new materials [1]