中加基金固收周报|银行配置行情推动债市震荡走强

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 439.3 billion, and 185 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -113.3 billion, 310.9 billion, and 183 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 71.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 52.6 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 294.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 149.8 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with the yield on 10-year government bonds approaching 1.8%. Key influencing factors include institutional behavior, real estate policies, and stock market volatility [2] - The liquidity situation is tightening due to accelerated local bond issuance and month-end disturbances, with R001 and R007 rising by 4.3 basis points and 10.4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][8] Policy and Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3, indicating a further decline in economic sentiment. High-frequency data shows stable performance on the production side at the beginning of the year, slight improvement in real estate demand, and price differentiation in food and a pullback in the prices of non-ferrous metals [3][9] Overseas Market - President Trump announced the nomination of hawkish member Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, up 2 basis points from the previous week [4][10] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a peak, with the total A-share index down by 1.59%. There was sector divergence, with military, automotive, and computer sectors leading the decline, while the non-ferrous sector fell sharply after extreme trading conditions. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.06 trillion, up by 264.3 billion from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 27,221.87 billion, an increase of 14.679 billion from January 22 [5][11] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In February, the short-term downward space for bond market yields may be limited as the 10-year government bond approaches the lower range of 1.8-1.9%. There is expected to be an increase in profit-taking demand. The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are anticipated to change, with local bond issuance accelerating again. Seasonal tightening pressure on liquidity before the Spring Festival remains a concern. Overall, the bond market's supply-demand performance at the beginning of 2026 is better than previously expected, with insufficient social credit demand and a slowdown in government bond supply growth. The banking sector's stabilization supports high demand for bond allocation, particularly in the long end, which is under less pressure than previously judged at the end of last year. The bond market is expected to show high certainty in the short and medium term, with long-end fluctuations. Potential directional changes should focus on external inflation transmission and real estate stabilization. There are slightly positive signals in real estate in January, but sustainability remains to be observed in the spring. The PPI for non-ferrous and energy prices shows a trend of rapid recovery [6][12]