小摩：欧洲央行本周料按兵不动 对欧元升值反应或温和

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's European Economic Research team anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely maintain the current policy interest rate at 2% and will not adopt a strong stance against the recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Despite geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the year and the euro/dollar exchange rate surpassing the 1.20 "warning line" mentioned by ECB Vice President De Guindos, current economic data does not challenge the 2% policy rate [1] - The ECB's staff forecast from December indicated that overall inflation and core inflation are very close to target levels, based on the assumption that the policy rate remains unchanged [1] - Although inflation may be slightly below expectations in Q1 2026, factors such as unexpected GDP growth in Q4 2025, declining unemployment rates, and rising consumer inflation expectations support the ECB's decision to remain passive [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Analysis - JPMorgan believes that the current fluctuations in the euro exchange rate do not warrant strong concern from the ECB, as the euro's appreciation should be viewed in the context of the 1.16 exchange rate benchmark from the December forecast [2] - The trade-weighted exchange rate has increased at a much lower rate than the euro/dollar exchange rate, and rising energy prices will also support inflation [2] - The ECB evaluates exchange rates by considering levels, speed of change, and sustainability of trends, and currently, the exchange rate fluctuations do not pose a significant threat given the resilience of the economy [2] Group 3: Policy Outlook - The ECB is expected to issue a policy statement without major adjustments, continuing to emphasize data dependency, gradual meeting assessments, and a non-committal policy approach [2] - Comments regarding the exchange rate and potential policy discussions are likely to be revealed during the press conference [2] - JPMorgan predicts that the ECB will not intervene aggressively in the exchange rate and remains satisfied with the current interest rate level, while signaling a willingness to respond to various shocks [2]