债市日报：2月3日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend ahead of the holiday, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching the critical level of 1.8%, leading to increased profit-taking pressure [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.10% at 111.96, the 10-year main contract up 0.02% at 108.26, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.905, and the 2-year main contract up 0.03% at 102.414 [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed narrow fluctuations, with government bonds performing slightly better than policy bank bonds [2] Overseas Bond Market - In the Asian market, Japanese bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.8 basis points to 2.263% [3] - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.71 basis points to 3.572% and the 10-year yield up 4.39 basis points to 4.279% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 182-day government bonds were 1.0959% and 1.2755%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.49 and 2.72 [4] - The China Development Bank's three-term financial bonds had winning yields below the market valuation, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4944%, 1.7258%, and 1.9501%, respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 105.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 4.8 basis points to 1.317% and the 7-day rate up 0.3 basis points to 1.488% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that offshore bonds issued in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone are primarily aimed at foreign investors, with no new non-financial corporate bonds issued as of January 2026 [6] - CITIC Securities expects that the ongoing promotion of high-dividend insurance products and the influx of funds from bank deposits will continue to support premium income in 2026 [7]