智通财经网·2026-02-03 08:59Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the VAT tax category for telecommunications services will impact the revenue and profit of the three major telecom operators in China, with an estimated net profit reduction of approximately 6%-8% [1][2][4]. Group 1: VAT Adjustment Details - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that from January 1, 2026, the VAT rate for basic telecommunications services will increase from 6% to 9% [2]. - The three major telecom operators have acknowledged that this adjustment will affect their financial performance [2]. Group 2: Business Impact Analysis - The telecom operators have diversified business segments, including voice calls, internet services, cloud computing, and hardware sales, which complicates the precise measurement of the VAT adjustment's impact [3]. - The adjustment's effect on net profit is estimated based on various assumptions, including a 50% pass-through of VAT to downstream customers and a 2% initial revenue reduction, with a gradual recovery expected [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - Despite the VAT adjustment, the high dividend yield of the telecom operators remains stable, with projected dividend payout ratios of 75% for China Mobile and China Telecom, and 58% for China Unicom, leading to dividend yields of 5.2%, 4.9%, and 3.6% respectively [5]. - The operators are expected to focus on enhancing network construction, technology research, and service quality, with significant investments in emerging fields such as 6G and AI anticipated to increase by approximately 10 percentage points [5][6]. - The operators are well-positioned to benefit from the growth of AI applications and the expansion of their computing capabilities, which may lead to a valuation uplift [7].