原材料价格上涨对白电龙头影响有限，白电1-2月排产增速环比改善

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in copper and other raw material prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods companies, but historical analysis shows that the negative impact of rising raw material costs on gross margins has gradually diminished, suggesting that these companies can maintain profitability through structural adjustments and cost savings [1][2]. Raw Material Price Impact - Since 2008, the home appliance industry has experienced three significant raw material price increase cycles, with the impact on gross margins decreasing over time: during 2009-2011, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points; in 2016-2017, it was around 5 percentage points; and from 2020-2022, it was about 2 percentage points [2]. - In January 2026, the average monthly closing prices for copper and aluminum on the SHFE showed year-on-year increases of 36.7% and 20.9%, respectively, which are lower than the increases seen from 2020-2022, indicating that the current raw material cost increase may have a lesser impact on white goods companies [2]. Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for January-February [3]. - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous year, with air conditioners down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17.0%, and washing machines down 3.2% [3]. - The impact of the Spring Festival timing has put pressure on production, but cumulative growth rates have shown slight improvement, and demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [3]. Retail Market Performance - In 2025, the retail scale of China's home appliance market was 893.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively [4]. - Small home appliances performed relatively well, with an overall retail growth of 3.8%, indicating resilience in this segment despite the overall market downturn [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Technology, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as in black goods and small appliances [4].