关注淡季补库涨价品种粘胶、染料，化工景气度有望持续上行

Group 1 - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4943.97 points, up 0.65% from last Friday, and outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.01% this week [1][2] - Among the sub-industries, 13 out of 25 sub-industries rose, while 12 fell. The leading sectors included textile chemical products, other chemical raw materials, compound fertilizers, coal chemicals, and phosphate fertilizers, with weekly increases of 13.89%, 6.58%, 4.94%, 4.72%, and 4.56% respectively [1][2] - Conversely, modified plastics, synthetic resins, and other plastic products experienced declines, with weekly decreases of -6.44%, -4.36%, and -3.67% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The price of disperse dyes has increased, with a rise of 1000 CNY/ton to 18000 CNY/ton on January 22, 2026, marking the first price adjustment in nearly a quarter [3] - The price of active dyes also rose from 22000 CNY/ton to 23000 CNY/ton on January 29, 2026, driven by a significant increase in the price of upstream key intermediates [3] - The price of these intermediates surged from 25000 CNY/ton to 38000 CNY/ton, an increase of over 50%, impacting downstream dye production costs [3] Group 3 - The viscose fiber industry is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, creating a basis for price increases. The operating rate has remained above 90% since September 2025, with total industry inventory at 10000 tons as of January 30, 2026, down 24.53% week-on-week [4] - The inventory days are estimated at about 9 days, indicating a relatively low stock level and favorable conditions for price hikes [4] Group 4 - The PVC industry is advancing towards mercury-free production, with a focus on developing mercury-free catalysts. The industry has achieved a target of halving mercury usage per unit product by 2020 compared to 2010 [5] - The transition from "low mercury" to "mercury-free" production is expected to phase out outdated capacities, thereby restoring the supply-demand balance in the industry [5]