库存去化&寒潮来临，短期煤价有望平稳偏强

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle, supported by fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in coal stocks [5] Group 1: Coal Inventory and Consumption - As of January 15, coal inventory in the eight coastal provinces decreased by 583,000 tons week-on-week, a decline of 1.71%, with daily consumption dropping by 100,000 tons/day, a decrease of 4.39% [4] - In the seventeen inland provinces, coal inventory fell by 1,507,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 1.59%, while daily consumption increased by 99,000 tons/day, an increase of 2.46% [4] Group 2: Coal Prices - As of January 17, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) was 697 RMB/ton, up 1 RMB/ton week-on-week; while the price for Datong thermal coal (Q5500) decreased by 12 RMB/ton to 569 RMB/ton [2] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port was 1,750 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [3] Group 3: Production Capacity Utilization - As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate for sampled thermal coal mines was 90.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week; for coking coal, it was 88.47%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points [3] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Non-electric demand for coal, particularly in the chemical sector, increased by 46,400 tons/day, a rise of 0.62% week-on-week; however, the steel furnace operating rate decreased to 78.8%, down 0.47 percentage points [4] - The report indicates that coal prices have stopped falling and begun to rebound since late December, driven by improving demand, although the momentum for this rebound may be weakening [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to ongoing supply constraints and rising costs [7] - The report suggests focusing on stable companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [7]