库存累积叠加关税预期推迟，铜价短期或迎来高位震荡

Group 1: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate price increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate rose by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton [3] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures (2605) rose by 1.94% to 146,200 CNY/ton, although it faced a limit down on Friday due to increased regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by speculative funds [3] - Demand for lithium remains strong, with phosphate iron lithium production in December reaching 404,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices may experience high volatility in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME copper down by 0.50% [1] - Significant inventory increases were reported, with LME copper inventory rising by 3.31% to 144,000 tons [1] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47% [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are expected to face high volatility due to inventory accumulation, with domestic aluminum inventory increasing by 3.1% to 736,000 tons [2] - The price of alumina fell by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum price rose by 0.83% to 24,200 CNY/ton [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum may increase due to the ongoing trend of "aluminum replacing copper" in the home appliance sector [2] Group 4: Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt increasing by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 450,000 CNY/ton [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may lead to a structural tightness in cobalt supply [4] - The continuation of cobalt export quotas until March 2026 is expected to impact domestic raw material availability [4]