German retail sales rise 2.7% in 2025 as online channels lead growth

Core Insights - Retail turnover in Germany increased by 2.7% in real terms in 2025 compared to the previous year, with a notable early growth linked to a restructuring of a major internet and mail-order group [1][2] Group 1: Retail Performance - Real growth reached 3.8% in the first half of 2025 but slowed to 1.7% in the second half [1] - Compared to 2021, real turnover in 2025 was 0.1% lower, while nominal sales were 17.3% higher [2] - Food retail saw a 1.1% rise in real terms and a 3.4% increase in nominal terms, while non-food sales advanced 3.7% in real terms and 4.1% in nominal terms [2] Group 2: E-commerce and Mail Order - Mail order and e-commerce recorded the fastest growth, climbing 10.1% in real terms and 10% nominally, influenced by the restructuring effect [2] - Online and mail-order revenues fell year-on-year and month-on-month in December [3] Group 3: Future Projections - The German Retail Association (HDE) projected retail revenue growth of 2% in 2026, despite challenging conditions for consumption [4] - Total retail sales are expected to reach €697.4 billion ($824.32 billion) in 2026, including €96.3 billion from online channels [5] - HDE forecasts nominal growth in online retail at 4.4%, equivalent to a real rise of 3.5% [4]