黄金与美元“脱钩”加剧！地缘风险溢价正重塑定价逻辑

Core Insights - The core variable omitted in current pricing models is the geopolitical risk premium [1][4] - The traditional inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar is breaking down, with gold's price movements becoming increasingly non-linear [1][3] - Recent data shows that gold's price increase has significantly outpaced the decline of the US dollar, indicating a potential failure of traditional modeling methods [3][4] Group 1: Pricing Model Failures - The sensitivity of gold prices to the US dollar index and real interest rates has significantly decreased [3][4] - In a complete trading year, the US dollar index fell by 9.76%, while gold prices surged over 70% [3] - The divergence in price movements between gold and the dollar has reached extreme levels, suggesting a potential reversal is expected [1][3] Group 2: Market Predictions - Major banks have raised their price forecasts for gold, with estimates reaching as high as $6,000 per ounce [4][5] - UBS highlights gold's strong performance as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios, despite a 90% increase over the past 13 months [4][5] - Citi warns that while geopolitical and economic risks support gold investments, about half of these risks may diminish later this year [5]