邦达亚洲:澳洲联储如期加息25个基点 澳元早盘上行

Group 1: US Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first entry into the expansion zone in nearly a year and the highest value since February 2022 [1][6] - The PMI has been below 50 for most of the past three years, indicating a prolonged period of economic weakness in the manufacturing sector [1][6] - ISM's chair, Susan Spence, cautioned that January's data should be viewed with caution, as it is typically a month for inventory replenishment post-holidays, and some purchasing may be preemptive against potential price increases due to ongoing tariff issues [1][6] Group 2: Australian Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85% to address significant inflationary pressures expected to rise in the second half of 2025 and demand-driven capacity constraints [2][7] - Despite a notable decline in inflation since its peak in 2022, recent increases indicate stronger capacity pressures, leading to the assessment that inflation may remain above target for some time [2][7] - The statement highlighted that private demand growth is significantly stronger than expected, driven by household consumption and investment, with ongoing activity and price increases in the housing market [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, nearing the 4400 mark and reaching a four-week low, with current trading around 4820 [3][8] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting the rise of the US dollar index and putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][8] - The forced liquidation of some long positions after the sharp decline further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [3][8] Group 4: Currency Markets - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight decline due to a strengthening US dollar index, which reached a six-day high, although expectations for further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia limited the downside [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair rose, hitting a four-day high around 1.3700, supported by strong economic data and a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations, while oil prices fell due to easing geopolitical tensions [5][10]