天弘基金张寓：左侧布局传统内需 紧抓新经济弹性机遇

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies of Zhang Yu, a fund manager at Tianhong Fund, focusing on the "fixed income +" sector and how to identify investment opportunities for the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Yu emphasizes a dual focus on value growth and industry trends to select stocks, while maintaining strict control over drawdowns [1][2]. - The investment framework involves deep research in 3 to 5 industries, aiming for long-term insights rather than short-term speculative opportunities [2]. - Zhang categorizes industry trends into three phases: "future time" for high volatility sectors, "ongoing time" for growth sectors, and "past time" for mature industries, with varying allocation strategies for each [2][3]. Group 2: Stock Selection - Zhang prefers stocks with alpha (excess returns) and focuses on three types of companies: established market leaders, competitive firms with emerging business models, and early-stage companies with first-mover advantages [3]. - The foundation of the investment portfolio is based on sustainability, with a belief that only companies with core competitive advantages can provide stable long-term returns [3]. Group 3: Risk Management - A mature three-dimensional risk control system is in place, where position sizes depend on the stability of expected returns, and individual stock drawdowns are monitored through in-depth research [3][4]. - The overall portfolio drawdown is managed by the fixed income department, considering macroeconomic conditions and asset valuation levels [3]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, the Tianhong Yongli Bond B fund, managed by Zhang, achieved a cumulative return of 25.96% over five years, outperforming its benchmark by 2.78% [4]. - The fund's total return since inception reached 167.12%, significantly exceeding the benchmark's 106.27% [4]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The traditional domestic demand sector is viewed as being at a low point, offering high value for left-side positioning, while the new economy sector shows strong innovation potential [5][6]. - Investment strategies will adapt based on industry lifecycle and comparative results, with a focus on sectors like offshore wind power and military trade [5][6].