油价支撑贸易扰动并存 美加央行立场分化

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing fluctuations influenced by multiple macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with its performance closely tied to international oil prices, the US-Canada interest rate differential, trade relations, and economic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Prices and CAD Correlation - The CAD is highly correlated with international oil prices, which have recently reached near four-month highs due to improved supply-demand dynamics and expectations of global economic recovery, benefiting Canada's trade surplus and capital inflows [1]. - A previous drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel, combined with a weak Canadian economy, led to the CAD depreciating against the USD, hitting a sixteen-month low [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Divergence in monetary policy between the US and Canada is affecting CAD movements, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and the market pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, which has led to a weaker USD and supported the CAD [1]. - The Bank of Canada also kept rates unchanged, causing the CAD to be more sensitive to oil price fluctuations rather than USD volatility [1]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Trade tensions between the US and Canada, particularly the proposed 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft imports, have raised market concerns and led to a short-term rebound of the USD against the CAD [2]. - Ongoing negotiations in the steel and aluminum sectors, as well as the review of the mainland free trade agreement, will further influence CAD movements [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Short-term Outlook - The USD/CAD exchange rate is in a downward channel, having broken below the 1.36 mark, with technical indicators showing mixed signals for short-term direction [2]. - The CAD is expected to be influenced by oil prices, US-Canada trade developments, and US economic data, with the USD/CAD likely to fluctuate between 1.3450 and 1.3700 [2]. Group 5: Medium to Long-term Considerations - The medium to long-term trajectory of the CAD will depend on the stability of oil prices, changes in the US-Canada interest rate differential, and the strength of the Canadian economic recovery [2]. - While Canadian manufacturing shows signs of recovery, volatility in consumer spending may limit CAD appreciation [2].