硫黄，终于开跌了！一铵走向怎么看？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of ammonium phosphate remains stable despite a recent decline in the price of sulfur, a key raw material, which has decreased by 220 yuan per ton, representing a drop of 9.28% [1][9][10] - As of February 2, the price of sulfur at Changjiang Port has fallen to 4150 yuan, down from a peak of 4370 yuan in mid-January, leading to a reduction of approximately 100 yuan in the production cost of ammonium phosphate per ton [3][12] - Despite the decrease in sulfur prices, they remain high compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 2570 yuan, or about 163% [3][12] Group 2 - Ammonium phosphate producers have a sufficient amount of orders to fulfill, with over 530,000 tons available for dispatch as of the end of January, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.26% [4][14] - Although market demand has softened and new orders are limited, the ample order backlog allows producers to maintain stable pricing, with some companies opting to pause or control new orders due to high costs [4][14] - The market for ammonium phosphate is expected to remain firm and experience narrow fluctuations, with limited potential for significant price volatility [8][18] Group 3 - The high production costs are supported by the elevated prices of sulfur and other raw materials, with the theoretical total production cost of ammonium phosphate in Hubei still reaching 4157 yuan [3][12] - External sulfur prices are also rising, with Qatar's sulfur contract for February 2026 priced at 520 USD, which translates to approximately 4393 to 4401 yuan in China [6][16] - The overall inventory levels are low, and while demand is currently subdued, there is an expectation for a new round of order replenishment after the Spring Festival [8][18]