December CRE deal volume sinks further, but office is a surprising bright spot

Core Insights - The US commercial real estate (CRE) market in 2025 showed a steady recovery, with deal volume increasing by 17% compared to 2024, although this growth was slower than the previous year's 24% and still 30% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [2][3] Deal Volume Trends - Total deal dollar volume in December 2025 dropped by 20% year over year, marking the second consecutive month of decline, but the full-year figures indicate potential momentum for the upcoming year [3] - The multifamily sector led the deal-making in 2025, with a 24% increase in deal volume from 2024, driven by higher mortgage rates in the single-family market [6] - The office sector also saw a significant recovery, with total deal volume up by 21% compared to the previous year, as return-to-office orders and AI employment growth countered earlier negative perceptions [5] Sector Performance - Retail experienced a healthy gain of 19%, with strong fundamentals in grocery-anchored and necessity-based centers, despite ongoing pressure from e-commerce [6][7] - Larger dollar CRE deals, specifically those over $100 million, increased by 23% compared to 2024, although this segment remains at only half of 2019 levels [8] - Smaller deals below $5 million have surpassed their 2019 pace by 4%, indicating increased activity from private capital and individual investors [9] Alternative Investments - There was a notable trend towards alternative sectors outside the core five, such as healthcare-related properties and data centers, with significant transactions like the largest-ever sale of a medical office portfolio [10] - Tech giants like Apple and Amazon were active in the market, with Apple investing over $1.1 billion in California, capitalizing on a 20-30% pricing reset in the Silicon Valley office market [12][13] Market Outlook - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a portfolio rebalancing, with institutional investors returning while some public REITs divest large portfolios to private equity firms [14] - Market participants are optimistic about future growth, anticipating support from a more dovish Federal Reserve and potential fiscal lifts, although interest rates are expected to remain elevated [15]