ZFX山海证券:比特币探底回升 去杠杆压力仍存

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - The cryptocurrency market is attempting to find a bottom after a volatile weekend, with Bitcoin rebounding approximately 7% to around $79,000, recovering from a low of $75,000 [1][3] - Despite the rebound, ZFX Shanhai Securities indicates that this slight recovery is unlikely to reverse the overall short-term downtrend, as the cumulative decline over the past week remains significant, indicating a need for time to restore market confidence [1][3] - The core factor behind the recent volatility is the chain liquidation in the leveraged market, with over $2 billion in crypto derivatives facing forced liquidation, highlighting the current fragility of market liquidity [1][3] Group 2: Traditional Financial Market Comparison - In contrast to the cryptocurrency market, the traditional financial sector is performing well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its ninth consecutive month of gains, marking a historic streak [2][4] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January unexpectedly rose to 52.6, indicating a return to expansion in the manufacturing sector after a year [2][4] - This strong economic backdrop has attracted significant capital back to mainstream financial assets, leading to declines in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy, which fell between 3% and 9% [2][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to early February, all eyes are on the upcoming January non-farm payroll report, as the heat of the job market will directly influence whether the Federal Reserve will consider restarting its rate-cutting path [5] - For cryptocurrencies, in the absence of new fundamental positive support, the market is expected to oscillate within the range of $78,000 to $82,000 [5] - ZFX Shanhai Securities advises investors to be cautious of potential new rounds of derivative sell-offs if technical support levels are breached again [5]