New Drugs Take Center Stage as Biogen Heads Into Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Biogen is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 6, with expectations for sales of $2.21 billion and earnings per share of $1.60, following a previous quarter where earnings exceeded expectations by 23.65% [1][10]. Sales Performance - Sales of Biogen's multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs are anticipated to decline due to generic competition for Tecfidera and biosimilar competition for Tysabri, although new products may offset some of this decline [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tecfidera sales is $120 million, while Tysabri is estimated at $362 million, and Vumerity is expected to rise to $183 million due to increased demand [3]. - U.S. MS sales were better than expected in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by Vumerity, but a steeper decline is expected in the fourth quarter due to increased competition, particularly in Europe [4]. Drug-Specific Insights - Sales of Spinraza are projected to decline to $380 million due to lower demand, while Skyclarys is expected to show sequential growth supported by demand and geographic expansion [5]. - Zurzuvae is likely to continue rising in sales, benefiting from strong patient demand and an expanding prescriber base, with its approval in the EU contributing to growth [6][7]. - Alzheimer's collaboration revenues are expected to rise, driven by Biogen's share of net product revenues from Leqembi, which has shown sequential sales improvement in the U.S. [8][9]. Earnings Surprise and Stock Performance - Biogen has a history of beating earnings estimates, with a four-quarter average surprise of 14.02%, and its stock has increased by 25.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 15.2% [12][13]. - The company's Earnings ESP is currently -2.49%, indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat this time [15][16].