报告：预计2026年布伦特原油均价每桶60至65美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the global oil market is shifting from a tight balance of supply and demand to a clear surplus, with Brent crude oil prices expected to average between $60 to $65 per barrel in 2026 under fundamental market conditions [1] - The report highlights a dynamic interplay between "supply surplus reality" and "geopolitical conflict risks" in the oil market, suggesting that prices could rise to $70 to $75 per barrel if geopolitical tensions dominate [1] - For natural gas, the market is transitioning from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with global demand expected to rebound in 2026, leading to a downward trend in international gas prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's oil consumption is projected to reach 762 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, with a notable shift in energy structure characterized by a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption and an increase in aviation fuel and chemical light oil [1] - The report anticipates that China's total oil consumption will stabilize in 2026, with a more pronounced trend of "oil decline and chemical rise," positioning chemical raw material demand as a new growth engine [1] - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 432 billion cubic meters in 2025, with transportation gas usage growing over 10% year-on-year, and a forecast of 450 to 455 billion cubic meters in 2026, indicating a robust mid-term outlook for natural gas consumption [2]