COLB Trades at 9.65x and Yields a 5%: Is Hold the Right Call?

Core Insights - Columbia Banking (COLB) has shown recovery with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and a strengthened presence in the Western market following the acquisition of Pacific Premier in August 2025 [1][10] - The short-term outlook is rated Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating steady estimate momentum rather than acceleration [1] - Core trends suggest improving margins and capital deployment strategies extending into 2026 [1] Valuation Metrics - COLB shares are currently trading at 9.65x forward 12-month earnings, compared to 10.46x for industry peers, 17.25x for the broader Finance sector, and 23.24x for the S&P 500 [2] - The five-year median P/E for COLB is 9.24x, indicating a modest discount relative to peers but consistent with its historical valuation [2] Dividend and Income - The dividend yield for COLB stands at approximately 5.0%, following a 2.8% increase to 37 cents per share announced in November 2025, enhancing total-return appeal [4] - Fee income has improved, with growth in treasury management and commercial card fees, supported by new platforms from Pacific Premier [7] Near-Term Financial Projections - Management projects a net interest margin (NIM) of 3.90-3.95% for Q1, with expected net interest income of $600 million [5][10] - Operating expenses (excluding amortization) are anticipated to be between $335-$345 million in the first two quarters, with a reduction expected in Q3 as synergies from the Pacific Premier acquisition are realized [5] Margin and Capital Management - NIM improved to 4.06% in Q4 2025 due to reduced deposit costs and wholesale funding, with projections for NIM to trend higher throughout 2026 [6] - Capital ratios have increased, allowing for enhanced buybacks and a higher dividend, with nearly $600 million remaining under the repurchase program and plans to buy back $150-$200 million per quarter in 2026 [8][10] Competitive Context - COLB's valuation is compared to peers such as East West Bancorp (EWBC) and Banner Corporation (BANR), both holding a Zacks Rank 3, with EWBC trading at a P/E of 11.12x and BANR at 10.59x [13] - The current valuation of COLB at 9.65x forward earnings and a yield of around 5% suggests a balanced near-term risk-reward profile [14]