ArcelorMittal (MT) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, reflecting a 7.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $15.76 billion, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 13.7% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Sales- North America' to be $3.06 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.6% [5]. - 'Sales- Brazil' is projected at $2.77 billion, reflecting a decrease of 4.2% from the previous year [5]. - 'Sales- Sustainable Solutions' is expected to reach $2.22 billion, down 7.5% from the prior year [5]. Production and Pricing Estimates - 'Sales- Mining' is projected at $859.64 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 22.1% [6]. - Total crude steel production is forecasted at 14 million metric tons, unchanged from the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Europe - Long shipments' are expected to be 2,096 thousand metric tons, slightly down from 2,133 thousand metric tons year-over-year [7]. - The average steel selling price in North America is anticipated to be $1,018.23, up from $892.00 in the same quarter last year [7]. Regional Production and Pricing - 'Brazil - Crude steel production' is estimated at 3,586 thousand metric tons, up from 3,527 thousand metric tons year-over-year [8]. - The average steel selling price in Brazil is projected to be $735.15, down from $773.00 in the previous year [8]. - 'Europe - Crude steel production' is expected to be 7,773 thousand metric tons, an increase from 7,696 thousand metric tons year-over-year [9]. - The average steel selling price in Europe is estimated at $895.62, up from $852.00 in the same quarter last year [9]. Shipment Estimates - 'North America - Steel shipments' are projected to reach 2,505 thousand metric tons, an increase from 2,391 thousand metric tons year-over-year [10]. - ArcelorMittal shares have increased by 21% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 1.8% [10].