India says it will stop buying Russian oil. Shadow fleet vessels are still unloading sanctioned crude at its ports

Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Deal and Russian Oil Imports - The U.S. trade deal with India includes a commitment from India to stop purchasing Russian oil and instead buy from Venezuela, although data indicates that Russian oil continues to be unloaded at Indian ports [1][6] - India's imports of Russian oil reached a record level in 2025, accounting for 33% of India's total seaborne oil imports and 25% of Russia's seaborne oil exports [6] - Kremlin officials have not received official communication from India regarding the suspension of oil purchases, and Prime Minister Modi has not confirmed the trade deal terms [7] Group 2: Shadow Fleet and Enforcement Measures - The global shadow fleet, estimated at 1,400 vessels, has been navigating around U.S. enforcement on Venezuelan and Iranian oil, as well as European interventions against stateless tankers carrying Russian crude [3] - The French seized the tanker Grinch, marking the first instance of the EU-UK plan to interdict Russia's shadow fleet, aimed at cutting Russian energy revenue [5] - The shadow fleet often sells sanctioned oil at a discount, which may increase as global enforcement measures tighten [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - If India ceases imports of Russian oil, it could empower other buyers of last resort, potentially pressuring Russian oil receipts downward [10] - Analysts suggest that a reduced market for Russian oil may hinder the shadow fleet's ability to find new employment, with China being the only major remaining buyer [11] - With diminishing Venezuelan crude and a potential shutdown of the Indian market, many vessels in the shadow fleet may be idled or scrapped [12]