DaVita Stock Rallies On Profit Beat, Confident 2026 View

Core Viewpoint - DaVita Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings and provided optimistic guidance for fiscal 2026, leading to a significant increase in stock price [1]. Earnings Summary - Adjusted earnings were $3.40 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.16 [2]. - Sales reached $3.62 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.8% and exceeding the consensus of $3.497 billion [2]. - Revenue per treatment increased from $410.59 to $422.60, driven by higher average reimbursement rates and seasonal factors [2]. Year-to-Date Changes - The year-to-date performance was influenced by the inclusion of phosphate binders in the ESRD Prospective Payment System and annual increases in average reimbursement rates, including Medicare [3]. - Total U.S. dialysis treatments for Q4 2025 were 7,264,520, averaging 91,608 treatments per day, which is a slight decrease of 0.1% from Q3 2025 [3]. Cost and Treatment Growth - Normalized non-acquired treatment growth for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024 was down by 0.6% [4]. - Patient care costs per treatment rose from $273.54 to $279.60, primarily due to increased health benefit expenses and medical supply costs [4]. Guidance - For fiscal 2026, DaVita anticipates adjusted earnings between $13.60 and $15.00 per share, exceeding the consensus of $12.65 [5]. - Adjusted operating income is expected to range from $2.09 billion to $2.24 billion, with treatment volume projected to remain flat compared to 2025 [5]. - Revenue per treatment is expected to grow by approximately 1% to 2%, while cost growth is anticipated to be between 1.25% and 2.25% [5]. Additional Investments - DaVita's CFO mentioned an estimated $40 million headwind from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, which is offset by the removal of a $45 million headwind from a previous cyber incident [6]. - DaVita is making a minority investment of approximately $200 million in Elara Caring, which is expected to positively impact other income lines [7]. Analyst View - Barclays has maintained an Equal-Weight rating on DaVita and raised the price target from $143 to $158 [8]. - Following the earnings report, DaVita's stock rose by 21.69% to $135.31 [8].