CARR to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Carrier Global (CARR) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with earnings estimated at 36 cents per share, reflecting a 10% decrease over the past 30 days but a year-over-year increase of 33.33% [1] - Revenue estimates for the quarter are pegged at $5.04 billion, indicating a 2.04% year-over-year decline [1] Financial Performance Expectations - For the full year 2025, Carrier Global anticipates sales of $22 billion, indicating flat organic growth, with adjusted earnings expected at $2.65 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 4% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $21.95 billion, reflecting an 8.54% year-over-year decline, while the consensus for earnings is $2.61 per share, down 3 cents over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 1.95% [2] Historical Performance - Carrier Global has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 10.22% [3] Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The fourth-quarter performance is expected to benefit from strong momentum in the Commercial HVAC and aftermarket services segments, particularly in the Americas, where the Commercial HVAC segment is projected to grow over 25% for 2025 [5] - Aftermarket services have been experiencing double-digit growth for several years, a trend likely to continue in the upcoming quarter [6] - The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions and the launch of new product lines are expected to enhance heat pump volumes and market reach [6] Challenges - Weakness in the residential and light commercial businesses, especially in the Americas and Europe, poses a concern, with CSA Resi sales expected to decline approximately 30% in Q4 due to ongoing destocking efforts and sluggish demand in the residential market [7][9] Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, Carrier Global has an Earnings ESP of -1.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [8]