国泰海通：鹰派沃什交易落地 股市波动率攀升

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [2] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced the largest increase [2] - Commodities saw a significant rise in oil prices, while gold and silver experienced notable pullbacks [2] - The dollar depreciated, while the British pound and Japanese yen appreciated, and the Chinese yuan depreciated [2] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices showing rising volatility [2] - Trading volumes in A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stocks increased, while South Korean stock trading volume decreased [2] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong stocks rose and is at historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment is also at historical highs [2] - Volatility increased in Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [2] - Valuations in both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week [3] - As of January 30, 2026, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised from -2.1% to -2.0% for 2025 [3] - The S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from +10.5% to +11.8% [3] - The Eurozone STOXX 50's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from -4.5% to -4.4% [3] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - The European economic surprise index also improved, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [3] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by real estate and service consumption policy expectations, as well as improved Sino-British relations [3] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations [4] - As of January 30, the market anticipates 2.1 rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [4] - Global liquidity saw significant inflows into mainland China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe last week, with the largest inflow into Hong Kong stocks coming from the Stock Connect [4]