特朗普公布120亿美元“金库计划”，效用有待观察

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has launched a $12 billion critical mineral reserve project, named the "Treasury Plan," aimed at supporting manufacturers and reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Treasury Plan" includes approximately $2 billion in private capital and $10 billion in loans from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to help manufacturers procure and store critical minerals [1]. - The project is designed to create a 60-day emergency mineral reserve, similar to the existing Strategic Petroleum Reserve, focusing on rare earths, gallium, and cobalt [2]. Group 2: Participation and Impact - Several companies, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, and Google, are already involved in the project, with commodity traders expected to handle raw material procurement [2]. - The plan allows participating manufacturers to make procurement commitments and secure inventory, shielding them from price fluctuations of critical materials [2]. Group 3: Market Dependency and Challenges - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to rely entirely on imports for 12 critical minerals, with over 50% import reliance for an additional 29 minerals [2]. - Analysts express skepticism about the plan's immediate effectiveness in reducing U.S. dependence on China, noting that the supply of rare earths is limited and the project may face procurement challenges [3]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The operational framework and mechanisms of the "Treasury Plan" are still unclear, and its long-term impact on the market and on China remains to be seen [3]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in rebuilding its rare earth supply chain, particularly in acquiring technology and expanding production capacity, which are complex issues not easily resolved [3].