中国银河证券曾韬：海外AI产业链电力瓶颈显现 国内电力系统升级正当时

Core Insights - The global AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, leading to an explosive increase in computing power demand, which is straining electricity supply and grid stability in key regions like North America and Europe [1][2] - China's new energy system construction is advancing, with significant investments in grid upgrades, energy storage, and digitalization, positioning the electricity sector as a crucial investment focus under the dual guidance of stable growth and energy transition [1] Group 1: AI Power Demand Surge - The expansion of AI computing power in North America and Europe is causing regional electricity shortages, impacting the construction progress of large data center projects [2] - This issue is not a short-term bottleneck but a long-term structural contradiction, as AI data centers exhibit exponential energy consumption while the backup capacity of European and American grids is nearing exhaustion [2] - The geographical layout of the industry is shifting towards regions with more abundant electricity resources, and companies are transitioning to integrated models of self-built green power generation and storage to ensure stable power supply [2] Group 2: China's Advantages in Power Supply - China possesses significant advantages in electricity supply stability, scale, green power allocation capabilities, and infrastructure construction efficiency [3] - The "East Data West Computing" national strategy effectively connects the computing demand in the east with renewable energy-rich areas in the west [3] - Global electricity tension is driving the restructuring of the energy infrastructure industry chain, with a shift from reliance on traditional grids to "green power direct supply + local storage" [3] Group 3: New Power System Development - The construction of a new power system in China is entering a critical phase, with the main systemic bottleneck being insufficient "carrying capacity" and "flexibility" of the power system [4] - The inherent randomness and volatility of renewable energy generation create significant challenges for grid stability, leading to structural issues such as "abandoned wind and solar" alongside "electricity shortages" [4] - Future focus areas include the development of "active distribution networks" capable of massive resource integration and intelligent control, as well as the promotion of flexible DC transmission technologies [4] Group 4: Transformative Role of Energy Storage - Energy storage has transitioned from an optional component to a necessary element of the new power system, crucial for solving renewable energy consumption and ensuring grid safety [5] - The commercial model for energy storage in China is evolving from a single supporting model to a diversified revenue system comprising market revenue, capacity compensation, auxiliary service revenue, and special subsidies [5] Group 5: International Opportunities for Chinese Energy Technology - China's energy technology and solutions are gaining broad opportunities on the international stage, particularly in addressing global energy transition and electricity tension [6] - The country can enhance cooperation with regions like Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East through equipment technology exports, capacity cooperation, and integrated investment, construction, and operation [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities in the Energy Sector - Under the dual policy guidance of "stabilizing growth" and "energy transition," the investment focus in the electricity and new energy sector is becoming clearer [6][7] - In the short to medium term, opportunities exist in the export of grid equipment, domestic ultra-high voltage projects, and the storage sector, with global grid investment entering a high prosperity cycle [7] - Long-term prospects remain strong in wind power, AI data center energy infrastructure, energy digitalization, and advanced fields like space photovoltaics [7] Group 7: Focus on Leading Companies - Investment strategies should prioritize leading companies in various sub-sectors, as they possess comprehensive advantages in technology development, brand strength, cost control, and overseas capabilities [7] - The advantages of leading companies are expected to strengthen further in the context of the industry's pursuit of high-quality development and "anti-involution" [7]