中信证券：多重因素共振 餐饮行业上行拐点可期

Core Viewpoint - The current restaurant industry is experiencing a phase of "marginal improvement in fundamentals—continuous policy support—price mechanism recovery—valuation uplift" driven by multiple factors [1] Industry - Since the second half of 2025, the restaurant industry has shown a trend of marginal improvement, with retail dining revenue increasing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2% year-on-year in October to December 2025, significantly outpacing overall retail growth [1] - The growth rate of the total number of food outlets nationwide has decreased compared to the first half of 2025, indicating a reduction in industry competition, which creates a more favorable environment for existing businesses to recover and improve profitability [1] - Major segments such as fast food, tea drinks, coffee, and Western cuisine have shown positive same-store sales growth, with leading companies demonstrating stronger operational resilience due to supply chain advantages, brand strength, and management capabilities [1] Policy - The restaurant sector is a key beneficiary of consumption stimulus policies due to its characteristics of high frequency, daily consumption, low single transaction amounts, and short decision-making chains [2] - Historical data shows that after the issuance of dining consumption vouchers in Shanghai, the year-on-year decline in retail dining revenue significantly narrowed, indicating effective policy execution [2] - If more consumption policies are introduced, the restaurant industry is expected to be a high-probability beneficiary, with improvements likely reflected in short-term operational data [2] Price - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, there have been signs of improvement in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the government aiming to "promote a reasonable recovery of prices" as a key macroeconomic goal [3] - Leading companies have begun to implement price adjustments through menu optimization and selective price increases, demonstrating their pricing power and the resilience of end-demand [3] - Historical experience suggests that fluctuations in raw material prices primarily have a short-term impact on restaurant companies' gross margins rather than long-term suppression [3] Valuation - Drawing from overseas experiences in Japan and the United States, CPI is a significant variable affecting restaurant sector valuations [4] - During periods of declining CPI or deflation, increased price competition and weak demand expectations tend to suppress restaurant valuations, while a recovery in CPI and improved inflation expectations can enhance long-term growth prospects and drive valuation recovery [4] - Leading restaurant companies, with stronger supply chains and management capabilities, are expected to see systematic valuation uplifts as the pricing environment improves [4] Investment Strategy - The restaurant industry is gradually entering a recovery phase driven by multiple factors [5] - Since the second half of 2025, retail dining revenue and same-store performance across major restaurant formats have improved, while the pace of new supply has slowed, reducing competitive intensity [5] - The importance of service consumption in the growth stabilization framework continues to rise, with the restaurant sector being a direct beneficiary of consumption stimulus policies [6] - As the government promotes a reasonable recovery of prices, restaurant companies are gradually implementing price adjustments, with historical data indicating that raw material cost fluctuations have a more temporary impact on profitability [6] - Overall, the industry is transitioning to a recovery phase primarily driven by fundamental improvements, with a positive mid-term outlook [6]