中信证券：多重因素共振，餐饮行业上行拐点可期

Core Viewpoint - The current restaurant industry is in a phase of "marginal improvement in fundamentals - continuous policy support - price mechanism recovery - potential valuation uplift" driven by multiple factors [1] Group 1: Operational Aspects - Since the second half of 2025, the retail dining revenue and same-store performance in major restaurant segments have shown continuous recovery [1] - The pace of supply expansion has slowed down, leading to a marginal decrease in industry competition intensity, which provides a more favorable external environment for business recovery and profit improvement [1] Group 2: Policy Environment - The direction of service consumption continues to strengthen, with the restaurant sector benefiting significantly from consumption stimulus policies due to its high frequency, strong scenarios, and short decision-making chains [1] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In the context of the government's clear push for reasonable price recovery, restaurant companies have begun to implement price adjustments [1] - Historical experience indicates that cost disturbances tend to have a more pronounced short-term impact, while medium to long-term gross margins are expected to recover and improve [1] Group 4: Valuation Trends - Drawing from overseas experiences, improvements in inflation expectations often lead to a rebound in the valuation center of the restaurant sector [1] - The restaurant industry is developing towards a more positive recovery direction under the influence of fundamentals, policies, prices, and valuations [1]