RBI likely to pause on rates in February policy as liquidity takes centre stage

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%, indicating a pause in rate cuts after previous easing measures [1][3][4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - A Mint poll indicates that nine out of ten economists predict the repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%, with only one economist expecting a 25-basis-point cut to 5.00% [1]. - The MPC is anticipated to keep a 'neutral' stance, allowing flexibility in future policy adjustments [2][4]. - The focus is shifting towards liquidity management rather than rate adjustments, as systemic liquidity remains low [2][6]. Liquidity Concerns - As of February 2, liquidity in the banking system was in surplus of ₹1.7 trillion, but pressures persist due to RBI's foreign exchange interventions [7][9]. - Economists suggest that the RBI should prioritize easing liquidity through open market operations (OMOs) and dollar buy-sell swaps [6][7]. - A potential temporary 1% cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) may occur if liquidity pressures continue [10][11]. Inflation and Growth Dynamics - Inflation is expected to average around 4% in FY27, aligning with the RBI's target, while growth indicators show improvement [3][4]. - The MPC is likely to wait for the new consumer price index (CPI) series release on February 12 before making significant policy changes [12][13]. - The current CPI inflation forecast for FY26 is expected to remain at 2.0%, with a possible downward adjustment for the January-March quarter [14]. Economic Context - The conclusion of the 125-basis-point easing cycle is attributed to strong domestic growth, with expectations of growth remaining above 7.6% despite global uncertainties [5][14]. - Recent government borrowing programs and the India-US trade deal are not expected to significantly impact the MPC's immediate decisions [4][14].