中电联发布电力供需形势分析预测报告 今年全国全社会用电量将增5%~6%

Core Viewpoint - The China Electricity Council (CEC) forecasts that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption will exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a historic milestone, with a projected growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by the expansion of renewable energy capacity and a balanced supply-demand situation [1][2][7]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Growth - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours, maintaining its position as the world's largest electricity consumer [2]. - The second industry will account for 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 64% of total consumption, contributing 47.5% to the growth [2][3]. - The third industry will see a growth of 8.2%, with a contribution rate of 30.7%, driven by sectors like charging services and internet-related services [3][10]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Expansion - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 61.7% of this capacity [4][5]. - Wind and solar power will constitute over 80% of the newly added generation capacity, with a total of 4.47 trillion kilowatt-hours of non-fossil energy generation expected, representing 42.9% of total generation [5][6]. - In 2026, solar power generation capacity is anticipated to surpass coal power for the first time, with non-fossil energy sources expected to account for 63% of total installed capacity [7][8]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - Investment in power grid construction is projected to reach 639.5 billion yuan in 2025, with significant growth in both direct current and alternating current projects [5][6]. - Cross-regional and cross-provincial electricity transmission is expected to grow, with cross-regional transmission reaching 998.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a 7.9% increase [6]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern energy system, with a focus on enhancing electricity supply security and grid intelligence [6][10].