华泰期货：多晶硅超跌昨日反弹大涨，供需两弱格局延续

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon prices are experiencing fluctuations with a slight downward trend, while polysilicon prices are showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and demand expectations [2][5][18]. Supply Side - As of February 3, 2026, industrial silicon futures opened at 8825 CNY/ton and closed at 8815 CNY/ton, a decrease of 55 CNY/ton or 0.62% from the previous day [2]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was reported at 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [13]. - Current prices for various grades of silicon in East China are stable, with 553 silicon priced at 9300-9400 CNY/ton and 421 silicon at 9500-9800 CNY/ton [2][13]. Demand Side - The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products has led to short-term expectations of increased demand for polysilicon, although accumulated inventory is hindering the transmission of demand for industrial silicon [3][13]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises is expected to decline slightly due to anticipated reductions in organic silicon production, indicating weakening downstream demand [3][14]. Price Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation due to mixed factors, with support from rising coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain [4][15]. - The upward potential of prices will depend on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [4][15]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, polysilicon futures opened at 47200 CNY/ton and closed at 50000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 6.61% increase from the previous trading day [5][16]. - The inventory of polysilicon has increased to 33.30 thousand tons, with a week-on-week change of 0.90%, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 27.29 GW, up 1.90% [5][16]. - The weekly production of polysilicon is reported at 20200 tons, showing a decrease of 1.46% [5][16]. Battery and Component Pricing - Prices for high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells are around 0.27 CNY/W, while PERC210 cells are priced at approximately 0.28 CNY/W [6][17]. - The mainstream transaction prices for PERC182mm and PERC210mm components range from 0.67 to 0.74 CNY/W and 0.69 to 0.73 CNY/W, respectively [6][17]. Future Strategy - The polysilicon market is expected to remain volatile, with several companies planning production cuts in February, indicating a tightening supply trend [18]. - Short-term focus will be on new silicon wafer pricing and the impact of the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax rebate, while medium-term attention will be on demand recovery and inventory reduction [18].