2月4日汇市早评：炸锅！美联储鹰派锁死全年利率

Core Viewpoint - The global currency market is experiencing stable trading with a lack of clear directional guidance, as various economic data and key events are set to be released, influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [1][5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data, China's Caixin Services PMI, and various PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK for January [1][8]. - The U.S. ADP employment figures and the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for January will also be closely monitored [1][8]. Currency Analysis - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Currently in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.75-97.82 and support at 97.45 and 97.20 [2]. - GBP/USD: The pair is under pressure, with significant resistance at 1.3710 and support at 1.3650, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - EUR/USD: The exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.18, with key support at 1.1780 and resistance at 1.1820-1.1850, lacking strong fundamental support [3]. - USD/JPY: The pair is trading within a range of 152-156, with resistance at 156.03 and support at 155.28-154.68, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4]. Recent News Impact - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by comments from officials, is expected to influence the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields significantly [5]. - The U.S.-India trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs and increased purchases of U.S. goods, is likely to reshape trade dynamics and impact commodity prices [5]. - The recent rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 52.6 suggests a return to expansion, which may bolster the dollar and U.S. equity markets [6]. - Developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could affect oil prices and market sentiment towards risk assets [6]. - The postponement of key employment data due to government shutdowns may lead to increased volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets [6].