智通财经网·2026-02-04 02:45Core Viewpoint - The improvement in the pattern of disperse dye intermediates is expected to drive up disperse dye prices, while the supply tightening of H-acid, an active dye intermediate, may also lead to potential price increases. The price increase expectations for these two types of dyes have been gradually confirmed by leading companies' price hikes, with a positive outlook for a long-term bullish market driven by environmental and dual-carbon policies in China [1]. Industry Restructuring - China is the largest dye producer globally, but the dye industry is highly polluting, generating significant wastewater. The tightening of environmental regulations has led to the exit of non-compliant small enterprises, resulting in a higher industry concentration. The concentration ratio (CR4) for disperse dyes is 67.2%, and for active dyes, it is 65.3%, indicating a well-established industry reshuffle [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines to expand zero-carbon factory construction to various sectors, including textiles, which may tighten carbon emission requirements in the dyeing industry [1]. Intermediate Supply Dynamics - The production of disperse dye intermediates involves complex processes that generate substantial waste, leading to a concentrated supply among compliant enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. The supply elasticity is low due to the closure of many non-compliant small factories [2]. - The effective capacity of H-acid has fallen below 60,000 tons, with a supply gap exceeding 10%. Recent maintenance by two major H-acid manufacturers may further reduce effective capacity by over 25% [2]. Price Elasticity and Market Comparison - The current situation of intermediates in the dye industry is likened to the relationship between citral and VA, characterized by complex synthesis processes and high concentration among leading firms. The cost of intermediates constitutes a significant portion of the production costs for dyes, which may lead to effective cost transmission [3]. - Historical data shows that disperse dye prices reached a high of 45,000 yuan/ton in 2015 and 19,000 yuan/ton currently, while active dye prices peaked at 33,000 yuan/ton in 2016 and are now at 23,000 yuan/ton, indicating substantial upward price potential [3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include RunTu Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jihua Group, Jinji Co., Annuoqi, Yabang Co., Fulaient, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market dynamics and integrated advantages [3].