Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-04 02:46Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with brokerage stocks showing strength against the trend, indicating a potential recovery in the brokerage sector's performance [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 4, A-shares opened lower but saw brokerage stocks like Huayin Securities rising over 4%, Dongwu Securities and Guotai Junan increasing nearly 2%, and others like Huatai Securities and Southwest Securities rising over 1% [1][10]. - The 390 billion yuan brokerage ETF (512000) saw an increase of 0.71% in its market price, with a significant net inflow of 1.139 billion yuan over the past five days [1][10]. Group 2: Brokerage Business Outlook - In January 2026, new A-share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025, indicating a robust brokerage business environment [2][12]. - Analysts noted a significant recovery in self-operated investment income for brokerages in January, with brokerage business activity reaching historical highs, suggesting a strong start to the year for listed brokerages [3][12]. Group 3: Profit Forecasts - As of now, 26 listed brokerages have reported or forecasted their earnings, all showing year-on-year profit growth, a rare "full house" scenario, with six firms reporting over 100% growth [3][12]. - Notably, Citic Securities reported a record net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan, while Guotai Junan's net profit increased by 111% to 115% [3][12]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Despite the overall bullish market, the brokerage sector has not seen significant momentum, with the CSI All Share Securities Index only rising 2.54% in 2025, compared to a 22.70% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][12]. - The sector's valuation remains low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.43, indicating a significant disconnect between high growth in earnings and stock performance [4][12].