国泰君安期货：今晨伦敦金强势拉升，5000大关失而复得

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, with Iranian boats threatening US tankers and US military actions against Iranian drones, which supports gold prices and causes a rise in international oil prices [2][7] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan indicated that interest rate cuts this year may exceed 100 basis points, which helps to restore market expectations for future monetary easing and supports a rebound in gold prices [2][7] - The recent approval of a government funding bill by the US House of Representatives marks the end of a partial government shutdown, which stabilizes market risk appetite and may slightly suppress safe-haven demand for gold [2][7] Group 2 - The Shanghai gold futures contract Au2604 has rebounded after a rapid decline, finding support above the historical rally point of 1000, and has successfully repaired the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the short-term weakness is nearly exhausted [3][7] - The recent rebound in gold prices is primarily driven by speculative buying after a short-term overselling, suggesting that the overall short-term strength is not robust and may only represent a technical rebound [5][9] - Key technical levels to watch include a short-term support around the 1100 level, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, and a significant resistance level near 1140, which corresponds to the opening price of a previous large bearish candle [5][9]