日元震荡上行 政策分化支撑汇价走强

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing upward momentum due to the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, alongside the resilience of the US economy, which is pushing the rate closer to previous high levels [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The strengthening of the USD/JPY is primarily driven by the ongoing divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with the Bank of Japan cautiously moving towards monetary normalization while the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a tighter policy stance [1][2]. - Japan's CPI is projected to decline to 1.8% and core CPI to 1.9% in 2026, indicating weakening inflation resilience, which limits the tightening pace of the Bank of Japan [1]. - The US economy is supported by AI investments, with expectations that the Fed's easing will peak in the first half of 2026, leading to a stronger dollar due to favorable interest rate differentials [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Constraints in Japan - Japan's economy faces multiple constraints, including a declining export growth rate since 2025, which is expected to worsen due to increasing uncertainties in global trade [2]. - The Japanese government's leverage ratio has reached 211%, with fiscal stimulus pushing the deficit rate to 3.1%, raising concerns about debt risks that could limit the yen's performance [2]. - Labor shortages in Japan continue to hinder robust economic recovery, indirectly affecting the valuation of the yen [2]. Group 3: US Economic Resilience - The resilience of the US economy and persistent inflation further solidify the dollar's advantage, with investment becoming the primary growth driver, leading to an increase in GDP [2]. - Tariff costs and wage growth are contributing to core CPI stability, which supports the Fed's policy convergence [2]. - Despite fluctuations in the dollar index, the overall economic and policy environment continues to provide strong support for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish, with the price stabilizing above short-term moving averages and showing strong upward momentum [3]. - Key resistance levels are near previous highs, with a successful breakout potentially opening further upside, while support is identified at the 155.50 level [3]. - Short-term attention should be on Fed officials' statements and economic data from Japan and the US, as these could influence market movements [3].